Pro bozhevilnu sytuatsiju v Ukrajini:
1) Kuzio pointed out, in some "notes to the disaster," that most of what was left in Our Ukraine for the parliamentary elections were its coalition-with-PR-friendly "national bourgeoisie," while most of its "genuine" national-democratic constituency had bolted; from the UkraineList:
From: "Taras Kuzio"2) LEvko at Foriegn Notes points out this piece about Moroz.
Date: Sun, 9 Jul 2006 00:16:26 -0500
This disaster can be squarely blamed on Yushchenko's indecision and lack of strategy, Our Ukraine's unwillingness to accept the election results and the Socialists lack of moral principles.
The only [foreign policy] factor I would add is that the US support for an Orange coalition was too narrow. Perhaps the US should have backed an Orange coalition OR a Grand coalition with Yulia Tymoshenko as Premier.
The two parties to gain from the new coalition are Regions and Tymoshenko. Back in late 2005, I labelled such a scenario as one of three, but unlikely and called it Kuchma-Lite.
The Socialists, Our Ukraine and Yushchenko have lost out.
Lytvyn will gain votes in the next election from the Socialists who can now be accused of "betrayal" of their votes. I doubt this parliament will last 5 years.
Our Ukraine are weakened by not having their national democratic constituency in parliament. Our Ukraine is less national democratic today than it was in 2002 and more centrist. Major national democratic blocs did not join Our Ukraine in 2006 (Pora-Reforms & Order and the Kostenko bloc) and lost the elections. In 2002 these two blocs were inside Our Ukraine.
After returning from Kyiv I concluded that Yushchenko is a one term president. A minority told me in Kyiv that he might even not last one term (like Kravchuk who called early elections in 1994 and lost to Kuchma). I now believe that Yushchenko could go the way of Kravchuk as a coalition dominated by the anti-presidential institution left + anti-Yushchenko Regions, could attempt to either impeach Yushchenko or abolish the presidency by making Ukraine into a full parliamentary republic (where the president is elected by parliament, a step that Kuchma-Medvedchuk proposed in 2003 when constitutional reforms were proposed).
The only "good news" is that if you think that an Orange coalition had internal contradictions then take a look at Kuchma-Lite's anti-capitalist left & Regions big oligarchs (translation: Yekhanurov's "national bourgeois'). How long will Kuchma-Lite last?
3) Yuri Shevchuk (Lecturer of Ukrainian Language and Culture at Columbia U, originally from Rivne, PhD from Shevchenko State U) had this optimistic thing to say I thought worthy of rumination (vis-a-vis his claims about PR here):
From an interview printed in Toronto's Novyi Shliakh newspaper (full text)
RT: What is your prognosis for the Ukrainian political situation?
YS: I feel a coalition between Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions (PR) would be the best outcome given the reality because I don't see any substantial difference in thinking and acting between the two forces. The pronouncements are all very well, but they say one thing, do another thing.
RT: But what about their different views on NATO and the EU?
YS: The PR absolutely wants to join NATO and EU; it wants their respect. Russia won't give them respect. It regards them as its vassals, not as serious partners, and PR realizes this. Simply behind them there are millions of people who have an animal fear of everything Ukrainian and PR is their hostage. But when PR is in power, they will sing another song. I think PR will achieve more for the European integration of Ukraine than this toothless and chaotic government we have now. It should have been done from the very beginning-unite with PR. Tymoshenko's bloc will be a great opposition and bridle them all. She's very charismatic; if in five years she persuades Ukrainians that she has an alternative, people will vote for her.
In my opinion, the Orange coalition has no future. These are completely different people, who hate each other; it will be a paralysis. On the other hand, it [that the democratic process of forming a coalition is taking place] is done for the first time in Ukraine. We should take this into account and not be frustrated.
[Sometimes], I get the impression that if Parliament never worked, no one would notice and life would go on...If laws are adopted, does anyone observe them? The problem is not in the laws, there must be political will to do things: to support culture, to not hinder business, etc.